Dicle described how the conflict between Iran and Israel marks a new stage in the ongoing struggles linked to the nation-state system. He explained, “The attack on Iran was long in preparation. It began with the killing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.” 

 

He added, “After the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel and the US could not reverse their policies. Netanyahu’s historic UN speech shortly after hinted at their plans for Iran and the Middle East.” Trump’s delayed intervention led to targeting Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria first, before finally focusing on Iran. “From this perspective, Iran is the final scene in the plan.”

 

‘A NEW REDESIGN PROCESS IS UNDERWAY’

 

Regarding Iran’s strategic significance, “If the Middle East is to be redesigned, intervention in Iran is inevitable. Iran holds a geostrategic position from Khorasan to the Strait of Hormuz,” said Dicle and added: “The main actors of this new design are the US, Israel, and Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia.”

 

‘ISRAEL’S SOLE GOAL IS ITS OWN EXISTENCE’

 

On the US-Iran nuclear talks, Dicle said, “Even if they had gone well, intervention would not have been stopped.” He underlined Israel’s long-term strategic thinking: “Israel’s fundamental goal is to secure its existence in the Middle East. The Jewish people have regained a state after 2,000 years and will not tolerate any threat to this status.”

 

ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF THE CONFLICT

 

Dicle called the conflict a conventional Third World War, warning that the fall of Iran’s regime could escalate into a future US-China conflict, mainly economic. He explained, “If Iran falls under US-Israeli control, it would block China at Asia’s western border, impacting Russia and relieving Gulf countries by securing control of the Strait of Hormuz and oil trade routes.”

 

IMPACT ON TURKEY

 

Dicle emphasized Turkey’s role, saying, “Iran and Turkey are the two pillars of the Middle East’s century-old status quo. The fall of Iran would heavily pressure Turkey, making resistance impossible and largely destroying the regional status quo. Turkey’s next moves will be decisive.”

 

POSSIBLE REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN

 

Highlighting strong protests in Iran, especially the “jin, jiyan azadî” (woman, life, freedom) movement, Dicle said, “Iran’s ethnic groups, including Kurds (15-20% of population), Azeris (over 30%), Balochs, and others, are organized and resistant.” He warned about state tactics to provoke ethnic tensions, particularly between Azeris and Kurds, and stressed the need for self-governance and caution.

 

‘SOLUTION IS SELF-GOVERNANCE OF PEOPLES’

 

Dicle pointed out, “Kurds in Rojilat (Iranian Kurdistan) are the best prepared, with PJAK as the strongest self-defense force. PJAK stated ‘No external intervention, no current regime,’ demanding self-rule.” He advised Kurds to calmly build their autonomy and avoid dangerous provocations, noting similarities to the cooperation between Kurds and Arabs in North and East Syria.

 

THE DEMOCRATIC NATION AS THE ANTIDOTE

 

Concluding, Dicle reiterated, “The antidote to the monoethnic nation-state in the Middle East is the democratic nation.” Quoting Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan, he said, “In a country like Iran, nationalism is like an atomic bomb that accelerates division. The democratic nation is the solution. Iran, with all its ethnic and religious diversity, is the foundation for this model.”

 

MA / Esra Solin Dal